"inflationary risks" in a deflationary context, a stagflationary trap, Bank of Russia, Banking, credit issued at rates of 10%, Economic pillage, Macroeconomic fantasies, Money or currency, pension savings, population a net debtor, profitability of the manufacturing industry is 7.5-8%, Sanctions, Sergei Glazyev, The Vineyard of the Saker, Washington Consensus
Source: The Vineyard of the Saker
Apparently, the heads of the Central Bank are guided by fantasies gleaned from student textbooks on macroeconomics.
STUPIDITY IS WORSE THAN THEFT
Why did the Central Bank raise the interest rate and let the ruble flow?
Author: Sergei Glazyev, academic RAS (Russian Academy of Sciences)
Another increase in key interest rates on loans issued by the Bank of Russia, for the purpose of refinancing commercial banks, made loans completely inaccessible for the majority of enterprises of the real sector of the economy. When the average profitability of the manufacturing industry is 7.5-8%, credit issued at rates of 10% or higher cannot be used by most businesses, either for investment or for replenishing working capital. Such decisions cut off the real economy, with the exception of some sectors of the oil, gas, and chemical-metallurgical sector, from credit issued by the State.
Prior to that, the consumer lending boom drove millions of citizens into a 10-trillion ruble debt and the real economy lost the savings of the population, becoming a net debtor. Also, the Government withdrew pension savings from the economy. Sanctions imposed by NATO countries deprive the economy of the bulk of external credit. Most businesses have only their own funds to finance working capital and investments, which is clearly not enough to provide even simple reproduction, never mind an expanded one. The amount of profit of enterprises this year (taking into account the fall in the prices of export goods) will be no more than 10% of the required rate of investment of 25-30% of GDP. It’s no surprise that as a result of such decisions amidst the economic recovery in almost all countries of the world this year, Russia is experiencing an unexpected decline in investment and production.
According to the Central Bank’s report, On the key rate of the Bank of Russia, October 31, 2014, its decision to raise interest rates was made because of external circumstances: “In September-October the external environment has changed significantly: oil prices dropped significantly while there has been a tightening of sanctions imposed by individual countries . . .
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