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Michael Roberts Blog

The first three months of 2019 have shown a significant slowing in global economic activity.  Global manufacturing output (as measured by JP Morgan economists) is actually falling.

So too is global trade for the first two months of this year.

And just today US retail sales for February also showed a slowdown.

We’ve had falling economic activity indicators in many major economies; and contracting industrial production in Europe and Japan.  The business activity indicators in the US are the highest among the G7 top capitalist economies, but even there, they are beginning to fall back.  Here is the latest Markit indicator for US manufacturing – still above 50 but dropping.

Corporate profits, which is the main driver of investment growth (usually with a one-year lag), are also slowing in some of the top economies. Indeed, China has just announced the biggest drop in industrial profits in ten years, down 14%…

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