antibiotic resistance, COVID-19, distortion of facts, hospital care has long been a problem, Italy, official statistics, only two deaths ascertained due to Covid-19, Pneumonia in older cohorts is expected, secondary findings, the baseline (annual average), The same applies to Spain
Source: wolfgang wodarg
Note: translated by means of Google Translate
Norm’s note, an update (3/27/2020):
Merely to clarify what was my original note and as a point of emphasis:
But especially interesting is a study referenced from January 2014, titled:
From the abstract of that study, you can quote the following:
We then present evidence for a zoonotic origin of four of the six known human CoVs (HCoV), three of which likely involved bats, namely SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and HCoV-229E; compare the available data on CoV pathogenesis in bats to that in other mammalian hosts; and discuss hypotheses on the putative insect origins of CoV ancestors.
COVID19 in Italy?
By Wolfgang Wodarg
Frequently asked questions:
How can the drama of the many intensive care patients and deaths in Italy (previously also in China) be explained? Doctors in Italy do not have enough space in the intensive care units and have to send older people home to die, one reads. Doesn’t that go beyond the flu waves of recent years? Or is it due to the poor quality of the health system?
Thank you very much for your questions. We have known for a long time that conditions in hospitals in Italy are becoming problematic at the time of the flu season. There are now sufficient reports and data showing that the positive corona tests are mostly secondary findings and other diseases are the killers. Air pollution, miserable hospital hygiene, irresponsible use of antibiotics and other problems have been known there for several years. Now we are putting the Schiuld in the shoes of the corona viruses. The same applies to Spain.
What you can read from the official statistics is that in Italy not more people die than usual during this flu season .
To answer further questions, the following would have to be researched, for example:
A .: Questions about the baseline (annual average) and possible secondary interests of the rapporteurs
- How many hospital beds per inhabitant are there in the regions to be compared?
- How was the occupancy of the beds last year?
- How has the incidence of acute respiratory diseases developed in Italy this winter compared to previous years?
- Is there an outpatient shortage situation, so that people are increasingly forced to use the hospitals directly?
- Do the prospective European grants for Italian clinics play a role in the media presentation of the situation by individual hospitals?
- What is the rate of nosocomial respiratory infections in the clinics in focus compared to others? (A much higher rate of antibiotic resistance is known.)
- Is it true that hospital care has long been a problem in regions of Italy ? (Staff, ventilation places, etc?)
For example: Questions about possible distortion of the facts due to incorrect or selective recording of the cases
For example, there are indications that the COVID19 test is used selectively in Italy, where particularly severely ill people are often found.
Here is an explanation:
- For example, if I used 1000 COVID19 tests in schools or factories on people who said they just had a cold, I would find corona viruses in 5 people. If the “new” corona viruses are really so important this season, I should have found them too.
- If I as a doctor were to examine 1000 people in my practice who have acute respiratory problems (ARE), I would probably find significantly more cases (eg 15 “positives”), because only people who seek help because they are alone come into the practice can not cope with the disease.
- If I do 1000 tests in the emergency room of a clinic for all patients with acute respiratory problems, I have to reckon that up to 15% of the tests will be positive, which would be 150 cases.
With a limited number of available tests, the greater the proportion of those examined who show clinically strong symptoms of an ARE, the more cases I find.
When I know that the mortality rate for severe, intensive care pneumonia patients is 20-30% in most countries , the alarmist reports from Italy appear in a different light.
In the Berlin Tagesspiegel it was reported:
“ Italy also tests post-mortem for coronavirus
In Italy, that much is certain, far more people have been tested for the coronavirus in Europe – and since the appearance of the first Covid-19 disease on the 20th February post-mortem tests are also carried out. An analysis of the first 104 deaths showed that more than two thirds of the deceased examined had at least two more or less life-threatening previous illnesses. “
In addition, it is known from studies in children that corona viruses were particularly often found together with other ARE viruses. It is then difficult to assess which pathogen was the more dangerous.
Above again, the country data on the weekly deaths observed there with the seasonal peaks of the past four years. Italy in the 12th row. Source: https://www.euromomo.eu/
Many old people live and die in Italy. Pneumonia is therefore expected to be a common cause of death in 70+. Many of these pneumonias only appear in the hospital, where the elderly patients were usually brought in for other diseases before their death. With a coronavirus quorum of approx. 10% of all pneumonia pathogens, coronaviruses should also be detected in approx. 1300 terminally ill patients. However, they are not automatically the cause of death, as was counted by some in Italy. (see below)
Coronavirus: ISS, in Italy there are only two deaths ascertained so far due to Covid-19
Rome, 13 Mar 19:12 – (Agenzia Nova) – There may be only two people who died from coronavirus in Italy, who did not present other pathologies. This is what emerges from the medical records examined so far by the Higher Institute of Health, according to what was reported by the President of the Institute, Silvio Brusaferro, during the press conference held today at the Civil Protection in Rome. “Positive deceased patients have an average of over 80 years – 80.3 to be exact – and are essentially predominantly male,” said Brusaferro. “Women are 25.8 percent. The average age of the deceased is significantly higher than the other positive ones. The age groups over 70, with a peak between 80 and 89 years. The majority of these people are carriers of chronic diseases.
These are the first minimum detailed data provided so far by the Civil Protection on the causes of death of coronavirus patients. At present, in fact, the authorities are unable to distinguish those who died from the virus, from those who, on the other hand, are communicated daily to the public, but who were mostly carriers of other serious diseases and who therefore would not have died from Covid-19. In response to a question from “Agenzia Nova”, in fact, Brusaferro was unable to indicate the exact number of coronavirus deaths. However, the professor clarified that, according to the data analyzed, the vast majority of the victims “had serious pathologies and in some cases the onset of an infection of the respiratory tract can lead more easily to death. To clarify this point, and provide real data, “as we acquire the folders we will go further. In any case, the populations most at risk are fragile, carriers of multiple pathologies”. (Rin) © Agenzia Nova – Reserved reproduction
“Coronavirus: ISS, only two deaths due to Covid-19 have been reported in Italy so far Rome, March 13 7:12 pm – (Agenzia Nova) –
In Italy, only two people who have no other pathologies may have died of coronavirus. This is evident from the medical records that have so far been examined by the higher institute of health, as the president of the institute, Silvio Brusaferro, reported during today’s press conference in civil defense in Rome. “Positive deceased patients have an average of over 80 years – 80.3 to be precise – and are essentially predominantly male,” said Brusaferro. “Women are 25.8 percent. The average age of the deceased is significantly higher than that of the other positive ones. The age groups over 70, with a peak between 80 and 89 years. The majority of these people are carriers of chronic diseases. Currently, only two people were not carriers of the disease. “But even in these two cases, the examination of the files is not complete, and therefore causes of death other than Covid-19 could occur. The president of the ISS has stated that” hardly more than a hundred medical files “have so far come from hospitals all over Italy are the first detailed minimum data that civil protection has so far provided on the causes of death of coronavirus patients. In fact, the authorities are currently unable to distinguish those who have died from the virus from those who have died daily Be communicated to the public but mostly were carriers of other serious diseases and who would not have died of Covid-19. When asked by “Agenzia Nova”, Brusaferro was unable to state the exact number of coronavirus deaths. However, the professor clarified that, according to the data analyzed, the vast majority of victims “had serious pathologies and, in some cases, the onset of respiratory infection can more easily lead to death. To clarify this point.” and provide real data, “if we buy the folders, we’ll go further. In any case, the most vulnerable populations are fragile and carry multiple pathologies.” (Rin) © Agenzia Nova – Reserved Reproduction ” Brusaferro was unable to provide the exact number of coronavirus deaths.
Norm’s note: some additional links and comments that I’ve decided to pilfer from Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg‘s website (as translated by Google Translate):
What is Covid-19 – and if so how many?
Famous US immunologists ask questions: Covid-19 – Navigating the Uncharted https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
Flu in Italy shortly before Wuhan:
Flu outbreak in Italy peaking as half a million people struck down in a week, The Local, 23.1.2020 (before
National Health office ISS about ARI in Italy 15.3.2020
COVID -19 must have been familiar to our immune system before the Wuhan “outbrake“
Perhaps 90% of corona infections go unnoticed! Prof. Dr. Pietro Vernazza, March 20, 2020
https://infekt.ch/2020/03/neues-verstaendnis -the-covid-19 epidemic /
CoV are rapidly changing their RNA and their hosts.
Not only Alpha but also Beta strains do this and not only in Italy
Drosten et al. long ago about SARS-like viruses in Europe Nov 2010, and Jan 2014
https: //pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih .gov / 24184128 /
The test fails substantially
false positive rate “of up to 80 percent possible. GH Zhuang 5.3.2020
Drostens test detects SARS-like viruses, that preexisted worldwide before Wuhan.
“These virus-positive samples stemmed from European rhinolophid bats. Detection of these phylogenetic outliers within the SARS-related CoV clade suggests that all Asian viruses are likely to be detected. “