Age adjusted all cause mortality, aging populations, “mass dying” (in absolute numbers), baby boomers, mortality trends 2000-2021 in Europe, Overloaded ICUs, Simpson’s paradox, the need for scaling up elderly health care infrastructure, What matters is the life expectancy
Hat tip: Dr. Norman Fenton
Source: Orwell2024’s Newsletter
Age adjusted all cause mortality trends 2000-2021 in Europe
December 09, 2021
The following works was motivated by the current focus on the observed all cause excess mortality, e.g. in Austria and the Netherlands. Examples are: AT (and my quick review) and this article from NL. Those news were the motivation to analyse if there is an issue or not. In order to do this, we need to make a real age adjusted analysis and look at fluctuation trends from previous years.
1 Data preparation
1.1 Data Sources
Note: The last age group was split in two, a 85-89 bin (2/3 of 85+) and a 90+ bin (1/3 of 85+). The 2/3 and 1/3 value is based on the current relative populations observed in those age groups in Europe.
EU Deaths by week, sex, 5-year age group and country:
EU population by 1 year age group, sex, year, country):
Note: The population for 2021 is not available yet. The 2021 dataset was created using linear extrapolation by age group using 2019 and 2020 population data (formula pop2021 = pop2020+(pop2020-pop2019)).
1.2 Standard populations
From the following source for standard populations, the below dataset was created. The last age group was split in two bins (to match the EC death age bins), a 85-89 bin (2/3 of 85+) and a 90+ bin (1/3 of 85+). The 2/3 and 1/3 value is based on the current relative populations observed in those age groups in Europe. In addition, a new empiric reference was generated from the NL 2011 population which is here named NL2011 (it is relatively close to ESP2013 as can be seen). As expected, the WHO and World standards are giving a higher weight to the younger population. The same is true for the older standards from 1960.
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